NFL Week 16:
Saturday games begin this week in the NFL, coinciding with the first round of the College Football Playoff. Somebody seems to have made a mistake there, but with all 32 teams in action, we’ll have four days of the NFL this week instead of three. A division rivalry in the AFC West between the Broncos and Chargers will get us started and the Packers as a heavy favorite against the Saints will finish the week on Monday Night Football.Let’s check out the adjustments to the lookahead lines after several noteworthy injuries and results.
Here is the Week 16 NFL Odds Report:
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 42)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon)Despite a very lackluster effort from the Chargers, we have not really seen an adjustment to where the lookahead line was on this game. Chargers -3 was the prevailing number and that is exactly where it is as we start the Week 16 process. It is a short week and rookie QB situation for the Broncos, who did get a bit lucky against the Colts, but an experienced head coach like Sean Payton could mitigate some of those factors. We’re also looking at a Chargers team that has lost two in a row and has scored just 17 points in each of the last three games.
Houston Texans (-2.5, 41) at Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (NBC)This game has taken on a very different feel with the high ankle sprain suffered by Patrick Mahomes last week against the Browns. The Chiefs have home-field advantage to worry about, but not at the expense of their star QB. Carson Wentz will get the call here and the Chiefs went from -4 in the lookahead markets to a small home underdog. The two passes thrown by Wentz against the Browns are his only attempts of the season, as he goes into this one against a terrific Texans defense coming off a nice win against Miami.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 46.5)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX)The gauntlet schedule continues for the Steelers, as they go from playing the Eagles to taking on the Ravens. Pittsburgh won the first game 18-16 as a home underdog of three points. Home-field advantage isn’t what it once was in the NFL. The lookahead markets had this game at 5, which doesn’t seem like enough of an adjustment given the change of venue. The Ravens also had a layup game against the Giants, while the Steelers had another toughie. I would say that the market correctly adjusted this game up to -6.5. Now we’ll see if Mike Tomlin gets love as an underdog. He didn’t last week against Philly and may be missing TJ Watt.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 49.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)The rare AFC North game on FOX features the Browns and Bengals, as all four AFC North teams play against each other this week. Kevin Stefanski benched Jameis Winston on a horrible day for Cleveland, as Myles Garrett suffered a first-half injury, but returned. Nick Chubb did not return, as the bad luck continued for him with a broken foot. Martin Emerson was also concussed. So, the Browns are going to be shorthanded here against a Bengals bunch that kept their extremely slim playoff hopes alive with a 37-27 win over Tennessee. We’ll see if the Browns go with Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Winston. That announcement is sure to impact the total. The Bengals were -6.5 on the lookahead.
Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 46.5) at Carolina Panthers
1 p.m. ET (FOX)The Cardinals make the cross-country trek to Charlotte to take on Carolina, as the Panthers lick their wounds after losing in ugly fashion as a rare favorite. The Panthers were no match at all for the Cowboys in a game where it felt like we could see the real-time progress of Dave Canales’ team. Instead, Carolina mustered just 235 yards of offense and Bryce Young was sacked six times. Meanwhile, the Cardinals took advantage of their game against the Patriots and kept alive their NFC West hopes, as slim as they are, by breaking a three-game skid. This line was Arizona -3.5 on the lookaheads.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-14, 46.5)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)Buffalo was nearly a two-touchdown favorite in the lookahead market for this one and the win over the Lions absolutely stood out. Buffalo looked outstanding on offense in that game, while the Patriots went on the road to Glendale and did not play well at all. The Bills defense is worthy of a discussion, but this is about as big of a step down on offense as you will find. Josh Allen’s postgame x-rays came back negative and the Bills love to put it on New England whenever they can, but I wonder how badly they’ll want to here.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 46.5) at Washington Commanders
1 p.m. ET (FOX)Division games are very much the theme this week, as we have another one here. The Commanders nearly gave one away against the Saints last week, but managed to avoid disaster by stopping a two-point conversion attempt with no time left on the clock. The game maybe never should have gotten to that point thanks to a clock mishap, but it was also a 20-7 game with 14:56 left and Washington got complacent. With Detroit’s loss to Buffalo, the Eagles have renewed life in the No. 1 seed race, so that should remain a motivating factor, along with the chance to clinch the division here.
The Eagles were -3 or -3.5 in the lookahead market, so not that much of an adjustment.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5, 42.5)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)The Colts saw their meager playoff chances go up in flames with a head-to-head loss to the Broncos, so this game doesn’t mean a whole lot except for pride. You really have to wonder where the Indy players’ minds will be. Offensive leader Jonathan Taylor made an egregious mistake dropping the ball before crossing the goal line for a touchdown and the entire game changed from that point on. The lookahead number was -4 or -4.5 here, so not much of a movement.
Los Angeles Rams (-3, 47) at New York Jets
1 p.m. ET (CBS)One of two games featuring an AFC vs. NFC matchup. The Rams are on extra rest off of beating the 49ers on Thursday, while the Jets scored a rare win over the Jaguars in a game that felt like it could’ve gone either way. Rams -3 and 47 were the prevailing numbers coming into the week and nothing has really changed.
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 46.5)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)To me, this is a really tough game to line. The 49ers mustered just six points against the Rams, but they’re on extra prep coming into this game. It is a long trip down to South Florida, but the Dolphins are doing that thing again this season where they can’t beat a good team. Are the 49ers still a good team? Probably not with all of the injuries, but they still seem more trustworthy in a game like this, don’t they? The Dolphins were under a field goal favorite across the board and still are as we wait to see what San Francisco’s injury situation looks like throughout the week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 48.5) at Dallas Cowboys
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)Did the Buccaneers have the most impressive win of any team last week? Tampa Bay pulverized the Chargers on the road and now gets the Sunday Night Football spotlight against a Dallas team that continues to fight hard and has won three of the last four games. The pass rush looks great for Dallas and we all know that Baker Mayfield will hang in there until he can’t, which leads to taking a lot of hits. The magnitude of Tampa Bay’s win pushed this line from -3.5 to -4 or -4.5.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-13.5, 42)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)Jake Haener didn’t look good for the Saints in his first NFL start and Spencer Rattler took over in relief. Collectively, the Saints only went 15-of-32 for 176, but Rattler did have a TD pass and the chance to win the game with a two-point conversion attempt at the end of regulation. New Orleans has been a tough out in every game under Darren Rizzi and the Packers could be in for more of a battle than initially expected. That said, they were anywhere from -12.5 to -13.5 in the lookahead markets as they welcome a dome team without their starting QB to Lambeau Field two days before Christmas.
